2026 Week 13 · Nov 27, 2026, 8:30 PM · CEFCU Stadium
North Dakota State @ San José State
Predicted scoreLean
North Dakota State
23.5
San José State
17.5
San José State win probability: 34%
Margin (San José State − North Dakota State): -6.0 (80% range -25 to 13)
Total: 40.9 (80% range 21 to 62)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 14 | 14 | 0.92% |
| 17 | 10 | 0.92% |
| 24 | 14 | 0.92% |
| 17 | 14 | 0.90% |
| 21 | 10 | 0.89% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Darker = more likely. The dot marks the predicted score; the dashed line is where home and away are tied.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 9/3/2026, 2:34:09 PM | -6.6 | 54.8 | 36% |
| 9/4/2026, 10:51:23 AM | -6.6 | 54.8 | 36% |
| 9/6/2026, 2:06:17 PM | -6.7 | 54.8 | 36% |
| 9/8/2026, 6:05:21 PM | -6.4 | 55.1 | 36% |
| 9/11/2026, 12:59:38 PM | -14.8 | 38.8 | 14% |
| 9/13/2026, 3:01:08 PM | -5.5 | 43.9 | 35% |
| 9/20/2026, 2:42:44 PM | -5.5 | 44.0 | 35% |
| 9/27/2026, 12:02:26 PM | -5.3 | 44.0 | 36% |
| 9/27/2026, 3:40:43 PM | -5.3 | 44.0 | 36% |
| 10/1/2026, 5:34:40 PM | -3.7 | 43.8 | 40% |
| 10/4/2026, 3:48:40 PM | -5.2 | 43.0 | 36% |
| 10/11/2026, 4:44:47 PM | -5.5 | 40.9 | 36% |
| 10/18/2026, 2:25:10 PM | -6.0 | 40.9 | 34% |