2026 Week 13 · Nov 27, 2026, 5:00 AM · Dowdy-Ficklen Stadium
Florida Atlantic @ East Carolina
Predicted scoreToss-up
Florida Atlantic
25.7
East Carolina
29.1
East Carolina win probability: 58%
Margin (East Carolina − Florida Atlantic): 3.4 (80% range -17 to 24)
Total: 54.8 (80% range 31 to 80)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 17 | 24 | 0.74% |
| 24 | 31 | 0.71% |
| 17 | 31 | 0.68% |
| 24 | 24 | 0.58% |
| 24 | 28 | 0.55% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Darker = more likely. The dot marks the predicted score; the dashed line is where home and away are tied.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:57:01 PM | 11.3 | 54.9 | 76% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:07:00 PM | 11.3 | 54.9 | 76% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:34:03 PM | 11.3 | 54.8 | 76% |
| 9/4/2026, 10:51:28 AM | 11.2 | 54.8 | 76% |
| 9/6/2026, 2:05:54 PM | 11.2 | 54.8 | 76% |
| 9/8/2026, 6:05:56 PM | 10.6 | 54.7 | 74% |
| 9/11/2026, 12:59:34 PM | 10.3 | 58.2 | 74% |
| 9/13/2026, 3:01:11 PM | 6.7 | 57.5 | 66% |
| 9/20/2026, 2:42:54 PM | 6.7 | 57.5 | 66% |
| 9/27/2026, 12:02:22 PM | 6.7 | 57.5 | 66% |
| 9/27/2026, 3:40:40 PM | 6.8 | 57.5 | 66% |
| 10/1/2026, 5:34:36 PM | 6.6 | 52.4 | 66% |
| 10/4/2026, 3:48:56 PM | 6.2 | 54.5 | 64% |
| 10/11/2026, 4:45:05 PM | 4.4 | 53.4 | 61% |
| 10/18/2026, 2:25:08 PM | 3.4 | 54.8 | 58% |