2026 Week 12 · Nov 22, 2026, 2:30 AM · Albertsons Stadium
San Diego State @ Boise State
Predicted scoreConfident
San Diego State
15.5
Boise State
34.8
Boise State win probability: 90%
Margin (Boise State − San Diego State): 19.3 (80% range 0 to 39)
Total: 50.3 (80% range 28 to 73)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 10 | 31 | 0.89% |
| 7 | 31 | 0.89% |
| 10 | 24 | 0.80% |
| 14 | 31 | 0.78% |
| 7 | 28 | 0.76% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Darker = more likely. The dot marks the predicted score; the dashed line is where home and away are tied.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:56:43 PM | 8.2 | 46.7 | 71% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:06:58 PM | 8.2 | 46.7 | 71% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:33:59 PM | 8.2 | 46.7 | 71% |
| 9/4/2026, 10:51:12 AM | 8.2 | 46.7 | 71% |
| 9/6/2026, 2:05:29 PM | 8.3 | 46.7 | 71% |
| 9/8/2026, 6:05:17 PM | 7.9 | 46.4 | 70% |
| 9/11/2026, 12:58:44 PM | 9.7 | 46.9 | 74% |
| 9/13/2026, 3:00:43 PM | 11.7 | 47.0 | 78% |
| 9/20/2026, 2:42:42 PM | 11.7 | 47.0 | 78% |
| 9/27/2026, 12:01:53 PM | 12.0 | 47.1 | 79% |
| 9/27/2026, 3:40:04 PM | 12.0 | 47.1 | 79% |
| 10/1/2026, 5:34:01 PM | 16.2 | 47.3 | 86% |
| 10/4/2026, 3:48:34 PM | 17.4 | 47.4 | 87% |
| 10/11/2026, 4:44:17 PM | 20.5 | 49.7 | 91% |
| 10/18/2026, 2:24:31 PM | 19.3 | 50.3 | 90% |