2026 Week 12 · Nov 22, 2026, 2:30 AM · Albertsons Stadium
San Diego State @ Boise State
Predicted scoreLikely
San Diego State
19.2
Boise State
27.5
Boise State win probability: 71%
Margin (Boise State − San Diego State): 8.2 (80% range -11 to 28)
Total: 46.7 (80% range 25 to 69)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 14 | 24 | 0.86% |
| 17 | 24 | 0.85% |
| 14 | 21 | 0.74% |
| 17 | 31 | 0.74% |
| 17 | 17 | 0.73% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:56:43 PM | 8.2 | 46.7 | 71% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:06:58 PM | 8.2 | 46.7 | 71% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:33:59 PM | 8.2 | 46.7 | 71% |