2026 Week 12 · Nov 22, 2026, 1:00 AM · CEFCU Stadium
UNLV @ San José State
Predicted scoreLean
UNLV
27.6
San José State
21.8
San José State win probability: 35%
Margin (San José State − UNLV): -5.8 (80% range -25 to 14)
Total: 49.4 (80% range 27 to 73)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 24 | 17 | 0.84% |
| 24 | 24 | 0.69% |
| 31 | 17 | 0.68% |
| 24 | 21 | 0.66% |
| 17 | 17 | 0.66% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Darker = more likely. The dot marks the predicted score; the dashed line is where home and away are tied.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:56:52 PM | -9.0 | 57.1 | 29% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:06:57 PM | -9.0 | 57.1 | 29% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:33:56 PM | -9.0 | 57.1 | 29% |
| 9/4/2026, 10:51:10 AM | -9.0 | 57.1 | 29% |
| 9/6/2026, 2:05:53 PM | -9.0 | 57.1 | 29% |
| 9/8/2026, 6:04:40 PM | -8.3 | 56.8 | 30% |
| 9/11/2026, 12:58:41 PM | -4.5 | 51.9 | 39% |
| 9/13/2026, 3:00:31 PM | -1.4 | 51.4 | 47% |
| 9/20/2026, 2:42:40 PM | -1.3 | 51.4 | 47% |
| 9/27/2026, 12:01:55 PM | -0.9 | 52.5 | 48% |
| 9/27/2026, 3:39:47 PM | -0.9 | 52.5 | 48% |
| 10/1/2026, 5:34:05 PM | -6.3 | 49.8 | 35% |
| 10/4/2026, 3:48:33 PM | -5.7 | 50.5 | 36% |
| 10/11/2026, 4:44:32 PM | -8.0 | 47.4 | 30% |
| 10/18/2026, 2:24:36 PM | -5.8 | 49.4 | 35% |