2026 Week 12 · Nov 22, 2026, 12:30 AM · Notre Dame Stadium
SMU @ Notre Dame
Predicted scoreLikely
SMU
21.1
Notre Dame
32.9
Notre Dame win probability: 77%
Margin (Notre Dame − SMU): 11.8 (80% range -8 to 32)
Total: 53.9 (80% range 31 to 79)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 17 | 31 | 0.78% |
| 24 | 31 | 0.73% |
| 17 | 24 | 0.65% |
| 17 | 38 | 0.63% |
| 24 | 38 | 0.63% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:56:51 PM | 11.8 | 53.9 | 77% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:06:57 PM | 11.8 | 53.9 | 77% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:33:57 PM | 11.8 | 53.9 | 77% |