2026 Week 12 · Nov 22, 2026, 12:30 AM · Notre Dame Stadium
SMU @ Notre Dame
Predicted scoreLikely
SMU
20.1
Notre Dame
35.6
Notre Dame win probability: 83%
Margin (Notre Dame − SMU): 15.5 (80% range -5 to 35)
Total: 55.6 (80% range 31 to 80)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 17 | 31 | 0.81% |
| 10 | 31 | 0.73% |
| 17 | 38 | 0.69% |
| 17 | 24 | 0.68% |
| 14 | 38 | 0.61% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Darker = more likely. The dot marks the predicted score; the dashed line is where home and away are tied.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:56:51 PM | 11.8 | 53.9 | 77% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:06:57 PM | 11.8 | 53.9 | 77% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:33:57 PM | 11.8 | 53.9 | 77% |
| 9/4/2026, 10:51:10 AM | 11.8 | 53.9 | 77% |
| 9/6/2026, 2:05:29 PM | 11.8 | 53.9 | 77% |
| 9/8/2026, 6:04:41 PM | 12.1 | 53.8 | 77% |
| 9/11/2026, 12:58:42 PM | 13.1 | 55.9 | 79% |
| 9/13/2026, 3:00:30 PM | 13.4 | 55.1 | 80% |
| 9/20/2026, 2:42:41 PM | 13.3 | 55.2 | 80% |
| 9/27/2026, 12:01:54 PM | 13.5 | 55.1 | 80% |
| 9/27/2026, 3:40:01 PM | 13.5 | 55.1 | 80% |
| 10/1/2026, 5:34:04 PM | 17.0 | 54.1 | 86% |
| 10/4/2026, 3:48:32 PM | 17.1 | 54.3 | 86% |
| 10/11/2026, 4:44:33 PM | 18.7 | 55.7 | 88% |
| 10/18/2026, 2:24:36 PM | 15.5 | 55.6 | 83% |