2026 Week 12 · Nov 21, 2026, 9:00 PM · Fargodome
Northern Illinois @ North Dakota State
Predicted scoreConfident
Northern Illinois
12.5
North Dakota State
27.7
North Dakota State win probability: 86%
Margin (North Dakota State − Northern Illinois): 15.2 (80% range -3 to 34)
Total: 40.2 (80% range 21 to 61)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 7 | 24 | 1.16% |
| 7 | 21 | 1.05% |
| 7 | 17 | 1.04% |
| 10 | 31 | 0.97% |
| 7 | 28 | 0.93% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Darker = more likely. The dot marks the predicted score; the dashed line is where home and away are tied.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 9/3/2026, 2:33:54 PM | 12.0 | 53.1 | 75% |
| 9/4/2026, 10:51:08 AM | 12.1 | 53.1 | 75% |
| 9/6/2026, 2:05:52 PM | 12.0 | 53.1 | 75% |
| 9/8/2026, 6:04:39 PM | 11.3 | 53.7 | 74% |
| 9/11/2026, 12:58:39 PM | 26.3 | 36.9 | 97% |
| 9/13/2026, 3:00:32 PM | 18.1 | 41.9 | 90% |
| 9/20/2026, 2:42:39 PM | 18.2 | 41.9 | 90% |
| 9/27/2026, 12:01:56 PM | 18.5 | 42.0 | 90% |
| 9/27/2026, 3:39:48 PM | 18.5 | 42.0 | 90% |
| 10/1/2026, 5:34:06 PM | 12.4 | 42.7 | 80% |
| 10/4/2026, 3:48:33 PM | 14.8 | 43.1 | 84% |
| 10/11/2026, 4:44:31 PM | 15.1 | 40.1 | 86% |
| 10/18/2026, 2:24:35 PM | 15.2 | 40.2 | 86% |