2026 Week 12 · Nov 21, 2026, 5:00 PM · Michie Stadium
East Carolina @ Army
Predicted scoreToss-up
East Carolina
23.1
Army
24.4
Army win probability: 53%
Margin (Army − East Carolina): 1.3 (80% range -18 to 21)
Total: 47.5 (80% range 27 to 70)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 24 | 24 | 0.91% |
| 17 | 14 | 0.80% |
| 17 | 24 | 0.78% |
| 24 | 17 | 0.76% |
| 21 | 17 | 0.73% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:56:42 PM | 1.3 | 47.5 | 53% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:06:54 PM | 1.3 | 47.5 | 53% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:33:49 PM | 1.3 | 47.5 | 53% |