2026 Week 12 · Nov 21, 2026, 5:00 PM · Michie Stadium
East Carolina @ Army
Predicted scoreLean
East Carolina
21.5
Army
28.3
Army win probability: 67%
Margin (Army − East Carolina): 6.9 (80% range -13 to 27)
Total: 49.8 (80% range 27 to 73)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 17 | 24 | 0.76% |
| 17 | 31 | 0.76% |
| 21 | 24 | 0.75% |
| 14 | 17 | 0.71% |
| 24 | 24 | 0.69% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Darker = more likely. The dot marks the predicted score; the dashed line is where home and away are tied.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:56:42 PM | 1.3 | 47.5 | 53% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:06:54 PM | 1.3 | 47.5 | 53% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:33:49 PM | 1.3 | 47.5 | 53% |
| 9/4/2026, 10:51:03 AM | 1.3 | 47.5 | 53% |
| 9/6/2026, 2:05:49 PM | 1.4 | 47.5 | 54% |
| 9/8/2026, 6:04:33 PM | 1.5 | 47.4 | 54% |
| 9/11/2026, 12:58:34 PM | 3.3 | 46.9 | 58% |
| 9/13/2026, 3:00:35 PM | 5.4 | 50.5 | 64% |
| 9/20/2026, 2:42:35 PM | 5.5 | 50.6 | 64% |
| 9/27/2026, 12:01:25 PM | 5.2 | 50.6 | 63% |
| 9/27/2026, 3:40:02 PM | 5.2 | 50.6 | 63% |
| 10/1/2026, 5:34:10 PM | 2.6 | 47.3 | 57% |
| 10/4/2026, 3:48:25 PM | 1.9 | 50.8 | 55% |
| 10/11/2026, 4:44:27 PM | 2.2 | 50.0 | 56% |
| 10/18/2026, 2:24:32 PM | 6.9 | 49.8 | 67% |