2026 Week 12 · Nov 21, 2026, 5:00 AM · Doak Campbell Stadium
NC State @ Florida State
Predicted scoreLean
NC State
25.4
Florida State
30.2
Florida State win probability: 62%
Margin (Florida State − NC State): 4.8 (80% range -15 to 25)
Total: 55.7 (80% range 31 to 81)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 17 | 24 | 0.70% |
| 24 | 31 | 0.66% |
| 21 | 24 | 0.66% |
| 31 | 31 | 0.61% |
| 17 | 21 | 0.60% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:56:45 PM | 4.8 | 55.7 | 62% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:06:53 PM | 4.8 | 55.7 | 62% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:33:48 PM | 4.8 | 55.7 | 62% |