2026 Week 12 · Nov 21, 2026, 5:00 AM · Doak Campbell Stadium
NC State @ Florida State
Predicted scoreLikely
NC State
24.0
Florida State
34.8
Florida State win probability: 75%
Margin (Florida State − NC State): 10.7 (80% range -10 to 32)
Total: 58.8 (80% range 34 to 84)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 17 | 31 | 0.79% |
| 24 | 38 | 0.69% |
| 24 | 31 | 0.66% |
| 21 | 38 | 0.57% |
| 17 | 28 | 0.56% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Darker = more likely. The dot marks the predicted score; the dashed line is where home and away are tied.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:56:45 PM | 4.8 | 55.7 | 62% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:06:53 PM | 4.8 | 55.7 | 62% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:33:48 PM | 4.8 | 55.7 | 62% |
| 9/4/2026, 10:50:43 AM | 4.8 | 55.6 | 62% |
| 9/6/2026, 2:05:38 PM | 4.8 | 55.6 | 62% |
| 9/8/2026, 6:05:15 PM | 4.7 | 54.9 | 62% |
| 9/11/2026, 12:58:30 PM | 5.9 | 55.5 | 64% |
| 9/13/2026, 3:00:38 PM | 5.9 | 56.1 | 64% |
| 9/20/2026, 2:42:25 PM | 5.9 | 56.1 | 65% |
| 9/27/2026, 12:01:44 PM | 6.2 | 56.1 | 65% |
| 9/27/2026, 3:40:09 PM | 6.2 | 56.1 | 65% |
| 10/1/2026, 5:34:16 PM | 7.4 | 57.0 | 68% |
| 10/4/2026, 3:48:09 PM | 10.4 | 57.9 | 74% |
| 10/11/2026, 4:44:22 PM | 8.3 | 59.3 | 69% |
| 10/18/2026, 2:24:27 PM | 10.7 | 58.8 | 75% |