2026 Week 12 · Nov 21, 2026, 5:00 AM · AmFirst Stadium
Missouri State @ Jacksonville State
Predicted scoreToss-up
Missouri State
24.8
Jacksonville State
28.1
Jacksonville State win probability: 59%
Margin (Jacksonville State − Missouri State): 3.3 (80% range -17 to 24)
Total: 52.9 (80% range 30 to 77)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 17 | 24 | 0.84% |
| 24 | 24 | 0.71% |
| 24 | 31 | 0.69% |
| 21 | 21 | 0.65% |
| 17 | 28 | 0.64% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:56:46 PM | 3.3 | 52.9 | 59% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:06:55 PM | 3.3 | 52.9 | 59% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:33:51 PM | 3.3 | 52.9 | 59% |