2026 Week 12 · Nov 21, 2026, 5:00 AM · AmFirst Stadium
Missouri State @ Jacksonville State
Predicted scoreLean
Missouri State
24.2
Jacksonville State
28.5
Jacksonville State win probability: 61%
Margin (Jacksonville State − Missouri State): 4.3 (80% range -16 to 24)
Total: 52.7 (80% range 30 to 77)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 21 | 24 | 0.79% |
| 17 | 24 | 0.77% |
| 24 | 24 | 0.76% |
| 24 | 31 | 0.67% |
| 17 | 17 | 0.64% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Darker = more likely. The dot marks the predicted score; the dashed line is where home and away are tied.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:56:46 PM | 3.3 | 52.9 | 59% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:06:55 PM | 3.3 | 52.9 | 59% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:33:51 PM | 3.3 | 52.9 | 59% |
| 9/4/2026, 10:51:05 AM | 3.3 | 52.9 | 59% |
| 9/6/2026, 2:05:50 PM | 3.3 | 52.9 | 59% |
| 9/8/2026, 6:04:36 PM | 4.9 | 52.3 | 62% |
| 9/11/2026, 12:58:36 PM | 5.3 | 48.9 | 63% |
| 9/13/2026, 3:00:34 PM | 4.8 | 49.9 | 62% |
| 9/20/2026, 2:42:36 PM | 4.8 | 49.9 | 62% |
| 9/27/2026, 12:01:58 PM | 5.3 | 49.9 | 63% |
| 9/27/2026, 3:40:00 PM | 5.3 | 49.9 | 63% |
| 10/1/2026, 5:34:08 PM | 3.5 | 50.8 | 59% |
| 10/4/2026, 3:48:23 PM | 3.5 | 51.8 | 59% |
| 10/11/2026, 4:44:29 PM | 4.8 | 53.0 | 62% |
| 10/18/2026, 2:24:33 PM | 4.3 | 52.7 | 61% |