2026 Week 12 · Nov 21, 2026, 5:00 AM · Scott Stadium
North Carolina @ Virginia
Predicted scoreToss-up
North Carolina
25.2
Virginia
25.0
Virginia win probability: 50%
Margin (Virginia − North Carolina): -0.1 (80% range -20 to 20)
Total: 50.2 (80% range 28 to 73)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 17 | 24 | 0.78% |
| 24 | 24 | 0.77% |
| 14 | 17 | 0.66% |
| 24 | 31 | 0.61% |
| 14 | 24 | 0.61% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Darker = more likely. The dot marks the predicted score; the dashed line is where home and away are tied.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:56:56 PM | 8.8 | 50.0 | 72% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:06:47 PM | 8.9 | 50.0 | 72% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:33:43 PM | 8.9 | 50.0 | 72% |
| 9/4/2026, 10:51:01 AM | 8.9 | 50.0 | 72% |
| 9/6/2026, 2:05:38 PM | 8.9 | 50.0 | 72% |
| 9/8/2026, 6:04:52 PM | 8.7 | 50.1 | 71% |
| 9/11/2026, 12:58:53 PM | 10.8 | 47.7 | 76% |
| 9/13/2026, 3:00:50 PM | 11.0 | 48.4 | 76% |
| 9/20/2026, 2:42:15 PM | 11.0 | 48.4 | 76% |
| 9/27/2026, 12:01:31 PM | 11.2 | 48.5 | 77% |
| 9/27/2026, 3:39:53 PM | 11.2 | 48.5 | 77% |
| 10/1/2026, 5:34:28 PM | 8.4 | 49.3 | 71% |
| 10/4/2026, 3:48:20 PM | 3.8 | 51.5 | 60% |
| 10/11/2026, 4:44:37 PM | 0.2 | 51.1 | 50% |
| 10/18/2026, 2:24:43 PM | -0.1 | 50.2 | 50% |