2026 Week 12 · Nov 21, 2026, 5:00 AM · Scott Stadium
North Carolina @ Virginia
Predicted scoreLikely
North Carolina
20.6
Virginia
29.4
Virginia win probability: 72%
Margin (Virginia − North Carolina): 8.9 (80% range -11 to 28)
Total: 50.0 (80% range 28 to 73)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 17 | 24 | 0.77% |
| 17 | 31 | 0.74% |
| 14 | 24 | 0.69% |
| 10 | 24 | 0.65% |
| 14 | 21 | 0.63% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:56:56 PM | 8.8 | 50.0 | 72% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:06:47 PM | 8.9 | 50.0 | 72% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:33:43 PM | 8.9 | 50.0 | 72% |