2026 Week 12 · Nov 21, 2026, 5:00 AM · Joan C. Edwards Stadium
Georgia State @ Marshall
Predicted scoreToss-up
Georgia State
29.5
Marshall
25.5
Marshall win probability: 40%
Margin (Marshall − Georgia State): -4.0 (80% range -24 to 17)
Total: 54.9 (80% range 31 to 80)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 24 | 24 | 0.73% |
| 24 | 17 | 0.62% |
| 21 | 17 | 0.61% |
| 31 | 24 | 0.60% |
| 21 | 24 | 0.60% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Darker = more likely. The dot marks the predicted score; the dashed line is where home and away are tied.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:56:48 PM | 8.0 | 57.4 | 69% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:06:51 PM | 8.1 | 57.4 | 69% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:33:34 PM | 8.1 | 57.4 | 69% |
| 9/4/2026, 10:50:44 AM | 8.0 | 57.4 | 69% |
| 9/6/2026, 2:05:35 PM | 8.0 | 57.4 | 69% |
| 9/8/2026, 6:05:09 PM | 7.7 | 57.7 | 68% |
| 9/11/2026, 12:58:28 PM | 4.9 | 55.9 | 62% |
| 9/13/2026, 3:00:39 PM | 0.9 | 55.3 | 52% |
| 9/20/2026, 2:42:33 PM | 1.0 | 55.4 | 53% |
| 9/27/2026, 12:01:24 PM | 1.3 | 55.4 | 53% |
| 9/27/2026, 3:40:14 PM | 1.3 | 55.4 | 53% |
| 10/1/2026, 5:34:23 PM | 0.8 | 57.0 | 52% |
| 10/4/2026, 3:48:14 PM | -2.7 | 56.8 | 43% |
| 10/11/2026, 4:44:14 PM | -3.6 | 55.7 | 41% |
| 10/18/2026, 2:24:40 PM | -4.0 | 54.9 | 40% |