2026 Week 12 · Nov 20, 2026, 11:00 PM · FBC Mortgage Stadium
Iowa State @ UCF
Predicted scoreToss-up
Iowa State
28.3
UCF
25.4
UCF win probability: 43%
Margin (UCF − Iowa State): -2.8 (80% range -24 to 17)
Total: 53.7 (80% range 31 to 79)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 24 | 17 | 0.68% |
| 24 | 24 | 0.66% |
| 17 | 17 | 0.65% |
| 24 | 21 | 0.63% |
| 21 | 17 | 0.62% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:56:56 PM | -2.8 | 53.7 | 43% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:06:43 PM | -2.9 | 53.7 | 43% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:33:17 PM | -2.8 | 53.7 | 43% |