2026 Week 12 · Nov 20, 2026, 11:00 PM · FBC Mortgage Stadium
Iowa State @ UCF
Predicted scoreToss-up
Iowa State
26.6
UCF
24.4
UCF win probability: 45%
Margin (UCF − Iowa State): -2.2 (80% range -22 to 17)
Total: 50.9 (80% range 28 to 75)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 24 | 17 | 0.67% |
| 31 | 24 | 0.66% |
| 24 | 21 | 0.64% |
| 24 | 24 | 0.61% |
| 17 | 17 | 0.61% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Darker = more likely. The dot marks the predicted score; the dashed line is where home and away are tied.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:56:56 PM | -2.8 | 53.7 | 43% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:06:43 PM | -2.9 | 53.7 | 43% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:33:17 PM | -2.8 | 53.7 | 43% |
| 9/4/2026, 10:50:32 AM | -2.8 | 53.7 | 43% |
| 9/6/2026, 2:05:32 PM | -2.9 | 53.7 | 43% |
| 9/8/2026, 6:04:47 PM | -3.1 | 52.9 | 42% |
| 9/11/2026, 12:58:48 PM | -2.7 | 53.3 | 43% |
| 9/13/2026, 3:00:46 PM | -3.3 | 51.8 | 42% |
| 9/20/2026, 2:42:18 PM | -3.3 | 51.8 | 42% |
| 9/27/2026, 12:01:29 PM | -3.1 | 51.9 | 42% |
| 9/27/2026, 3:39:50 PM | -3.1 | 51.9 | 42% |
| 10/1/2026, 5:34:25 PM | -4.4 | 51.9 | 39% |
| 10/4/2026, 3:48:12 PM | -3.1 | 51.1 | 42% |
| 10/11/2026, 4:44:09 PM | -2.9 | 51.4 | 43% |
| 10/18/2026, 2:24:48 PM | -2.2 | 50.9 | 45% |