2026 Week 12 · Nov 17, 2026, 5:00 AM · Peden Stadium
Ball State @ Ohio
Predicted scoreLikely
Ball State
19.9
Ohio
34.3
Ohio win probability: 82%
Margin (Ohio − Ball State): 14.4 (80% range -7 to 35)
Total: 54.2 (80% range 31 to 79)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 17 | 24 | 0.79% |
| 14 | 31 | 0.78% |
| 17 | 31 | 0.77% |
| 14 | 28 | 0.70% |
| 14 | 35 | 0.68% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Darker = more likely. The dot marks the predicted score; the dashed line is where home and away are tied.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:56:51 PM | 16.7 | 49.3 | 86% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:06:42 PM | 16.7 | 49.3 | 86% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:33:14 PM | 16.7 | 49.3 | 86% |
| 9/4/2026, 10:50:28 AM | 16.6 | 49.3 | 86% |
| 9/6/2026, 2:05:31 PM | 16.7 | 49.4 | 86% |
| 9/8/2026, 6:04:42 PM | 15.8 | 49.4 | 84% |
| 9/11/2026, 12:58:25 PM | 14.7 | 52.6 | 83% |
| 9/13/2026, 3:00:41 PM | 13.3 | 52.6 | 80% |
| 9/20/2026, 2:42:21 PM | 13.4 | 52.6 | 80% |
| 9/27/2026, 12:01:50 PM | 15.0 | 52.7 | 83% |
| 9/27/2026, 3:40:18 PM | 14.9 | 52.7 | 83% |
| 10/1/2026, 5:34:00 PM | 16.7 | 53.7 | 85% |
| 10/4/2026, 3:48:10 PM | 12.5 | 51.7 | 78% |
| 10/11/2026, 4:44:06 PM | 13.5 | 52.5 | 80% |
| 10/18/2026, 2:24:50 PM | 14.4 | 54.2 | 82% |