2026 Week 12 · Nov 17, 2026, 5:00 AM · Peden Stadium
Ball State @ Ohio
Predicted scoreConfident
Ball State
16.3
Ohio
33.0
Ohio win probability: 86%
Margin (Ohio − Ball State): 16.7 (80% range -3 to 36)
Total: 49.3 (80% range 27 to 72)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 7 | 31 | 0.85% |
| 17 | 31 | 0.80% |
| 14 | 24 | 0.80% |
| 14 | 31 | 0.78% |
| 17 | 38 | 0.77% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:56:51 PM | 16.7 | 49.3 | 86% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:06:42 PM | 16.7 | 49.3 | 86% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:33:14 PM | 16.7 | 49.3 | 86% |