2026 Week 11 · Nov 15, 2026, 4:00 AM · Clarence T.C. Ching Athletics Complex
North Dakota State @ Hawai'i
Predicted scoreLean
North Dakota State
23.3
Hawai'i
19.2
Hawai'i win probability: 39%
Margin (Hawai'i − North Dakota State): -4.1 (80% range -23 to 14)
Total: 42.6 (80% range 23 to 65)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 17 | 17 | 0.95% |
| 24 | 17 | 0.91% |
| 21 | 17 | 0.86% |
| 17 | 10 | 0.83% |
| 17 | 14 | 0.83% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Darker = more likely. The dot marks the predicted score; the dashed line is where home and away are tied.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 9/3/2026, 2:33:12 PM | 1.3 | 55.2 | 52% |
| 9/4/2026, 10:50:06 AM | 1.3 | 55.2 | 52% |
| 9/6/2026, 2:05:05 PM | 1.2 | 55.1 | 52% |
| 9/8/2026, 6:03:53 PM | 1.3 | 55.7 | 53% |
| 9/11/2026, 12:58:24 PM | -14.1 | 40.1 | 16% |
| 9/13/2026, 3:00:23 PM | -4.7 | 44.4 | 38% |
| 9/20/2026, 2:41:56 PM | -4.7 | 44.4 | 38% |
| 9/27/2026, 12:00:55 PM | -4.8 | 44.3 | 37% |
| 9/27/2026, 3:39:16 PM | -4.8 | 44.3 | 37% |
| 10/1/2026, 5:33:55 PM | -0.5 | 44.2 | 48% |
| 10/4/2026, 3:47:43 PM | -4.0 | 47.0 | 40% |
| 10/11/2026, 4:43:54 PM | -3.9 | 45.0 | 40% |
| 10/18/2026, 2:24:26 PM | -4.1 | 42.6 | 39% |