2026 Week 11 · Nov 15, 2026, 12:30 AM · University Stadium (NM)
UNLV @ New Mexico
Predicted scoreLikely
UNLV
20.4
New Mexico
31.4
New Mexico win probability: 76%
Margin (New Mexico − UNLV): 10.9 (80% range -8 to 31)
Total: 51.8 (80% range 29 to 76)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 17 | 24 | 0.80% |
| 14 | 31 | 0.73% |
| 17 | 31 | 0.69% |
| 14 | 24 | 0.69% |
| 10 | 24 | 0.63% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Darker = more likely. The dot marks the predicted score; the dashed line is where home and away are tied.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:56:32 PM | 0.3 | 59.5 | 51% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:06:41 PM | 0.3 | 59.5 | 51% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:33:10 PM | 0.3 | 59.5 | 51% |
| 9/4/2026, 10:50:04 AM | 0.3 | 59.6 | 51% |
| 9/6/2026, 2:05:06 PM | 0.3 | 59.5 | 51% |
| 9/8/2026, 6:03:55 PM | 1.7 | 59.6 | 54% |
| 9/11/2026, 12:58:22 PM | 5.1 | 55.7 | 63% |
| 9/13/2026, 3:00:24 PM | 8.3 | 54.4 | 70% |
| 9/20/2026, 2:41:55 PM | 8.3 | 54.5 | 70% |
| 9/27/2026, 12:00:53 PM | 8.6 | 54.5 | 71% |
| 9/27/2026, 3:39:14 PM | 8.6 | 54.5 | 71% |
| 10/1/2026, 5:33:53 PM | 10.8 | 53.9 | 75% |
| 10/4/2026, 3:47:44 PM | 11.7 | 52.6 | 77% |
| 10/11/2026, 4:43:52 PM | 10.6 | 52.7 | 75% |
| 10/18/2026, 2:24:25 PM | 10.9 | 51.8 | 76% |