2026 Week 11 · Nov 15, 2026, 12:30 AM · University Stadium (NM)
UNLV @ New Mexico
Predicted scoreToss-up
UNLV
29.6
New Mexico
29.9
New Mexico win probability: 51%
Margin (New Mexico − UNLV): 0.3 (80% range -21 to 21)
Total: 59.5 (80% range 35 to 86)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 24 | 31 | 0.67% |
| 24 | 24 | 0.66% |
| 31 | 24 | 0.64% |
| 31 | 31 | 0.61% |
| 24 | 21 | 0.58% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:56:32 PM | 0.3 | 59.5 | 51% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:06:41 PM | 0.3 | 59.5 | 51% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:33:10 PM | 0.3 | 59.5 | 51% |