2026 Week 11 · Nov 15, 2026, 12:00 AM · Falcon Stadium
San José State @ Air Force
Predicted scoreToss-up
San José State
26.7
Air Force
30.7
Air Force win probability: 60%
Margin (Air Force − San José State): 4.0 (80% range -17 to 24)
Total: 57.4 (80% range 34 to 83)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 24 | 24 | 0.77% |
| 24 | 31 | 0.76% |
| 24 | 28 | 0.66% |
| 21 | 31 | 0.62% |
| 21 | 21 | 0.61% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:56:25 PM | 3.9 | 57.4 | 60% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:06:41 PM | 3.9 | 57.4 | 60% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:33:09 PM | 4.0 | 57.4 | 60% |