2026 Week 11 · Nov 15, 2026, 12:00 AM · Falcon Stadium
San José State @ Air Force
Predicted scoreLikely
San José State
21.9
Air Force
32.7
Air Force win probability: 75%
Margin (Air Force − San José State): 10.8 (80% range -10 to 31)
Total: 54.6 (80% range 31 to 79)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 17 | 24 | 0.83% |
| 14 | 31 | 0.69% |
| 17 | 28 | 0.68% |
| 24 | 31 | 0.66% |
| 17 | 31 | 0.66% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Darker = more likely. The dot marks the predicted score; the dashed line is where home and away are tied.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:56:25 PM | 3.9 | 57.4 | 60% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:06:41 PM | 3.9 | 57.4 | 60% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:33:09 PM | 4.0 | 57.4 | 60% |
| 9/4/2026, 10:50:03 AM | 3.9 | 57.4 | 60% |
| 9/6/2026, 2:05:07 PM | 4.0 | 57.4 | 60% |
| 9/8/2026, 6:03:56 PM | 3.8 | 57.2 | 60% |
| 9/11/2026, 12:58:21 PM | 1.1 | 55.1 | 52% |
| 9/13/2026, 3:00:25 PM | 3.8 | 56.6 | 60% |
| 9/20/2026, 2:41:54 PM | 3.8 | 56.7 | 60% |
| 9/27/2026, 12:00:53 PM | 4.0 | 56.5 | 60% |
| 9/27/2026, 3:39:46 PM | 4.0 | 56.5 | 60% |
| 10/1/2026, 5:33:52 PM | 8.0 | 54.3 | 70% |
| 10/4/2026, 3:47:45 PM | 7.8 | 52.0 | 69% |
| 10/11/2026, 4:43:52 PM | 8.5 | 52.2 | 70% |
| 10/18/2026, 2:24:24 PM | 10.8 | 54.6 | 75% |