2026 Week 11 · Nov 14, 2026, 5:00 AM · Plaster Sports Complex
New Mexico State @ Missouri State
Predicted scoreLean
New Mexico State
22.8
Missouri State
29.0
Missouri State win probability: 65%
Margin (Missouri State − New Mexico State): 6.2 (80% range -14 to 27)
Total: 51.9 (80% range 30 to 76)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 17 | 24 | 0.90% |
| 24 | 31 | 0.70% |
| 24 | 24 | 0.68% |
| 21 | 24 | 0.66% |
| 24 | 17 | 0.66% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:56:41 PM | 6.2 | 51.9 | 65% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:06:39 PM | 6.2 | 51.9 | 65% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:33:04 PM | 6.2 | 51.9 | 65% |