2026 Week 11 · Nov 14, 2026, 5:00 AM · Kenan Stadium
Louisville @ North Carolina
Predicted scoreLean
Louisville
29.0
North Carolina
25.0
North Carolina win probability: 40%
Margin (North Carolina − Louisville): -4.0 (80% range -24 to 17)
Total: 54.0 (80% range 31 to 79)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 24 | 17 | 0.76% |
| 24 | 24 | 0.66% |
| 31 | 17 | 0.66% |
| 28 | 24 | 0.61% |
| 24 | 21 | 0.60% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Darker = more likely. The dot marks the predicted score; the dashed line is where home and away are tied.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:56:32 PM | -8.0 | 51.4 | 31% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:06:38 PM | -8.0 | 51.4 | 31% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:32:43 PM | -8.0 | 51.4 | 31% |
| 9/4/2026, 10:50:15 AM | -8.0 | 51.4 | 31% |
| 9/6/2026, 2:05:21 PM | -8.0 | 51.4 | 31% |
| 9/8/2026, 6:04:28 PM | -8.2 | 51.2 | 30% |
| 9/11/2026, 12:57:55 PM | -9.1 | 52.2 | 28% |
| 9/13/2026, 3:00:16 PM | -8.8 | 50.9 | 29% |
| 9/20/2026, 2:41:41 PM | -8.9 | 50.9 | 29% |
| 9/27/2026, 12:00:57 PM | -8.7 | 50.9 | 29% |
| 9/27/2026, 3:39:37 PM | -8.6 | 50.9 | 29% |
| 10/1/2026, 5:33:47 PM | -7.1 | 53.9 | 33% |
| 10/4/2026, 3:47:58 PM | -3.7 | 56.3 | 41% |
| 10/11/2026, 4:43:44 PM | -3.8 | 55.4 | 41% |
| 10/18/2026, 2:24:20 PM | -4.0 | 54.0 | 40% |