2026 Week 11 · Nov 14, 2026, 5:00 AM · Kenan Stadium
Louisville @ North Carolina
Predicted scoreLean
Louisville
29.7
North Carolina
21.7
North Carolina win probability: 31%
Margin (North Carolina − Louisville): -8.0 (80% range -28 to 11)
Total: 51.4 (80% range 29 to 76)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 24 | 17 | 0.78% |
| 31 | 17 | 0.73% |
| 38 | 17 | 0.66% |
| 24 | 14 | 0.65% |
| 24 | 24 | 0.65% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:56:32 PM | -8.0 | 51.4 | 31% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:06:38 PM | -8.0 | 51.4 | 31% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:32:43 PM | -8.0 | 51.4 | 31% |