2026 Week 11 · Nov 14, 2026, 5:00 AM · Houchens Industries-L.T. Smith Stadium
Jacksonville State @ Western Kentucky
Predicted scoreToss-up
Jacksonville State
25.6
Western Kentucky
27.0
Western Kentucky win probability: 54%
Margin (Western Kentucky − Jacksonville State): 1.4 (80% range -18 to 21)
Total: 52.6 (80% range 30 to 77)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 17 | 24 | 0.70% |
| 24 | 17 | 0.69% |
| 24 | 24 | 0.68% |
| 24 | 31 | 0.66% |
| 21 | 17 | 0.65% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Darker = more likely. The dot marks the predicted score; the dashed line is where home and away are tied.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:56:40 PM | 2.8 | 52.8 | 57% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:06:40 PM | 2.8 | 52.8 | 57% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:33:06 PM | 2.8 | 52.8 | 57% |
| 9/4/2026, 10:49:59 AM | 2.8 | 52.8 | 57% |
| 9/6/2026, 2:05:08 PM | 2.8 | 52.8 | 57% |
| 9/8/2026, 6:03:59 PM | 2.8 | 52.3 | 57% |
| 9/11/2026, 12:58:18 PM | -0.2 | 53.0 | 50% |
| 9/13/2026, 3:00:17 PM | 0.3 | 54.1 | 51% |
| 9/20/2026, 2:41:52 PM | 0.4 | 54.2 | 51% |
| 9/27/2026, 12:00:51 PM | 0.8 | 54.1 | 52% |
| 9/27/2026, 3:39:43 PM | 0.8 | 54.1 | 52% |
| 10/1/2026, 5:33:50 PM | 3.0 | 52.3 | 57% |
| 10/4/2026, 3:48:08 PM | 1.7 | 52.6 | 54% |
| 10/11/2026, 4:43:50 PM | 2.2 | 53.5 | 55% |
| 10/18/2026, 2:24:23 PM | 1.4 | 52.6 | 54% |