2026 Week 11 · Nov 14, 2026, 5:00 AM · Chapman Stadium
Florida Atlantic @ Tulsa
Predicted scoreLean
Florida Atlantic
25.1
Tulsa
31.3
Tulsa win probability: 65%
Margin (Tulsa − Florida Atlantic): 6.2 (80% range -14 to 27)
Total: 56.4 (80% range 33 to 82)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 17 | 31 | 0.68% |
| 17 | 24 | 0.68% |
| 24 | 24 | 0.64% |
| 17 | 21 | 0.64% |
| 24 | 31 | 0.62% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Darker = more likely. The dot marks the predicted score; the dashed line is where home and away are tied.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:56:37 PM | -2.4 | 56.3 | 44% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:06:30 PM | -2.4 | 56.3 | 44% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:32:48 PM | -2.4 | 56.2 | 44% |
| 9/4/2026, 10:49:50 AM | -2.4 | 56.2 | 44% |
| 9/6/2026, 2:05:17 PM | -2.5 | 56.2 | 44% |
| 9/8/2026, 6:04:14 PM | -3.2 | 56.1 | 42% |
| 9/11/2026, 12:58:02 PM | 0.3 | 58.9 | 51% |
| 9/13/2026, 3:00:18 PM | 0.9 | 59.3 | 52% |
| 9/20/2026, 2:41:46 PM | 0.9 | 59.3 | 52% |
| 9/27/2026, 12:01:01 PM | 1.1 | 59.3 | 52% |
| 9/27/2026, 3:39:33 PM | 1.1 | 59.3 | 52% |
| 10/1/2026, 5:33:37 PM | 1.6 | 55.3 | 54% |
| 10/4/2026, 3:47:56 PM | 4.6 | 55.7 | 61% |
| 10/11/2026, 4:43:41 PM | 2.8 | 56.3 | 57% |
| 10/18/2026, 2:24:17 PM | 6.2 | 56.4 | 65% |