2026 Week 11 · Nov 11, 2026, 5:00 AM · Kelly/Shorts Stadium
Sacramento State @ Central Michigan
Predicted scoreConfident
Sacramento State
14.1
Central Michigan
37.0
Central Michigan win probability: 93%
Margin (Central Michigan − Sacramento State): 22.9 (80% range 3 to 42)
Total: 51.1 (80% range 30 to 75)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 7 | 31 | 0.98% |
| 7 | 38 | 0.92% |
| 10 | 31 | 0.90% |
| 7 | 35 | 0.87% |
| 7 | 28 | 0.81% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Darker = more likely. The dot marks the predicted score; the dashed line is where home and away are tied.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 9/3/2026, 2:32:28 PM | -6.5 | 54.7 | 36% |
| 9/4/2026, 10:50:21 AM | -6.5 | 54.7 | 36% |
| 9/6/2026, 2:05:13 PM | -6.7 | 54.6 | 35% |
| 9/8/2026, 6:04:07 PM | -6.4 | 54.2 | 35% |
| 9/11/2026, 12:57:40 PM | 6.2 | 43.4 | 66% |
| 9/13/2026, 3:00:02 PM | 14.8 | 50.1 | 83% |
| 9/20/2026, 2:41:34 PM | 14.9 | 50.1 | 83% |
| 9/27/2026, 12:01:07 PM | 15.3 | 50.1 | 84% |
| 9/27/2026, 3:39:18 PM | 15.3 | 50.1 | 84% |
| 10/1/2026, 5:33:23 PM | 22.0 | 49.7 | 92% |
| 10/4/2026, 3:47:47 PM | 23.5 | 50.7 | 94% |
| 10/11/2026, 4:43:57 PM | 22.5 | 50.2 | 93% |
| 10/18/2026, 2:24:03 PM | 22.9 | 51.1 | 93% |