Predicted scoreLean
Air Force
25.4
Army
29.7
Army win probability: 61%
Margin (Army − Air Force): 4.3 (80% range -15 to 24)
Total: 55.0 (80% range 31 to 80)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 21 | 21 | 0.78% |
| 21 | 24 | 0.77% |
| 24 | 24 | 0.77% |
| 14 | 21 | 0.68% |
| 24 | 31 | 0.66% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Darker = more likely. The dot marks the predicted score; the dashed line is where home and away are tied.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:56:10 PM | 10.6 | 51.7 | 76% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:06:25 PM | 10.6 | 51.7 | 76% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:32:23 PM | 10.6 | 51.7 | 76% |
| 9/4/2026, 10:49:36 AM | 10.5 | 51.6 | 76% |
| 9/6/2026, 2:05:01 PM | 10.5 | 51.6 | 76% |
| 9/8/2026, 6:03:40 PM | 9.7 | 51.5 | 74% |
| 9/11/2026, 12:56:53 PM | 8.4 | 51.8 | 71% |
| 9/13/2026, 2:59:24 PM | 5.9 | 55.7 | 65% |
| 9/20/2026, 2:41:30 PM | 6.1 | 55.7 | 65% |
| 9/27/2026, 12:00:20 PM | 5.0 | 55.6 | 63% |
| 9/27/2026, 3:38:45 PM | 5.0 | 55.6 | 63% |
| 10/1/2026, 5:32:49 PM | 5.7 | 54.5 | 64% |
| 10/4/2026, 3:47:22 PM | 4.5 | 55.2 | 61% |
| 10/11/2026, 4:42:58 PM | 2.0 | 54.4 | 55% |
| 10/18/2026, 2:23:39 PM | 4.3 | 55.0 | 61% |