2026 Week 10 · Nov 8, 2026, 12:00 AM · AmFirst Stadium
Sam Houston @ Jacksonville State
Predicted scoreLean
Sam Houston
23.3
Jacksonville State
31.2
Jacksonville State win probability: 68%
Margin (Jacksonville State − Sam Houston): 7.9 (80% range -13 to 28)
Total: 54.5 (80% range 31 to 79)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 24 | 24 | 0.71% |
| 24 | 31 | 0.70% |
| 14 | 24 | 0.70% |
| 17 | 24 | 0.67% |
| 17 | 28 | 0.64% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Darker = more likely. The dot marks the predicted score; the dashed line is where home and away are tied.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:56:14 PM | 14.6 | 51.7 | 83% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:06:25 PM | 14.6 | 51.7 | 83% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:32:21 PM | 14.7 | 51.7 | 83% |
| 9/4/2026, 10:49:35 AM | 14.7 | 51.6 | 83% |
| 9/6/2026, 2:05:01 PM | 13.6 | 51.7 | 81% |
| 9/8/2026, 6:03:39 PM | 14.4 | 51.7 | 82% |
| 9/11/2026, 12:56:51 PM | 10.4 | 54.2 | 74% |
| 9/13/2026, 2:59:23 PM | 9.3 | 55.0 | 72% |
| 9/20/2026, 2:41:29 PM | 9.3 | 55.0 | 72% |
| 9/27/2026, 12:00:20 PM | 9.8 | 55.0 | 73% |
| 9/27/2026, 3:38:45 PM | 9.7 | 55.0 | 73% |
| 10/1/2026, 5:32:47 PM | 6.6 | 54.2 | 66% |
| 10/4/2026, 3:47:22 PM | 5.5 | 55.5 | 64% |
| 10/11/2026, 4:42:58 PM | 7.0 | 55.3 | 67% |
| 10/18/2026, 2:23:40 PM | 7.9 | 54.5 | 68% |