2026 Week 10 · Nov 7, 2026, 5:00 AM · Pitbull Stadium
Missouri State @ Florida International
Predicted scoreLean
Missouri State
18.7
Florida International
26.0
Florida International win probability: 69%
Margin (Florida International − Missouri State): 7.3 (80% range -11 to 27)
Total: 44.6 (80% range 24 to 67)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 10 | 24 | 0.90% |
| 17 | 24 | 0.84% |
| 14 | 24 | 0.81% |
| 17 | 21 | 0.80% |
| 14 | 21 | 0.78% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Darker = more likely. The dot marks the predicted score; the dashed line is where home and away are tied.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:56:13 PM | 0.5 | 49.9 | 51% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:06:24 PM | 0.5 | 49.9 | 51% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:32:19 PM | 0.5 | 49.9 | 51% |
| 9/4/2026, 10:49:33 AM | 0.5 | 49.9 | 51% |
| 9/6/2026, 2:05:00 PM | 0.5 | 49.9 | 51% |
| 9/8/2026, 6:03:36 PM | 1.6 | 49.7 | 54% |
| 9/11/2026, 12:57:34 PM | 7.3 | 45.5 | 68% |
| 9/13/2026, 2:59:22 PM | 6.4 | 46.1 | 66% |
| 9/20/2026, 2:41:27 PM | 6.4 | 46.1 | 66% |
| 9/27/2026, 12:00:18 PM | 6.4 | 46.2 | 66% |
| 9/27/2026, 3:38:48 PM | 6.5 | 46.2 | 66% |
| 10/1/2026, 5:33:18 PM | 4.1 | 45.3 | 61% |
| 10/4/2026, 3:47:21 PM | 4.9 | 45.0 | 63% |
| 10/11/2026, 4:42:56 PM | 8.0 | 45.7 | 70% |
| 10/18/2026, 2:23:41 PM | 7.3 | 44.6 | 69% |