2026 Week 10 · Nov 7, 2026, 5:00 AM · CEFCU Stadium
Northern Illinois @ San José State
Predicted scoreLean
Northern Illinois
20.9
San José State
28.5
San José State win probability: 69%
Margin (San José State − Northern Illinois): 7.6 (80% range -13 to 28)
Total: 49.4 (80% range 27 to 73)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 17 | 31 | 0.76% |
| 17 | 24 | 0.73% |
| 10 | 24 | 0.69% |
| 24 | 31 | 0.69% |
| 14 | 17 | 0.69% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Darker = more likely. The dot marks the predicted score; the dashed line is where home and away are tied.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:56:20 PM | 5.2 | 50.6 | 63% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:06:22 PM | 5.2 | 50.7 | 63% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:31:57 PM | 5.2 | 50.6 | 63% |
| 9/4/2026, 10:49:26 AM | 5.2 | 50.6 | 63% |
| 9/6/2026, 2:04:49 PM | 5.1 | 50.6 | 63% |
| 9/8/2026, 6:03:25 PM | 3.7 | 50.7 | 59% |
| 9/11/2026, 12:57:10 PM | 10.5 | 46.6 | 75% |
| 9/13/2026, 2:59:32 PM | 10.4 | 46.5 | 75% |
| 9/20/2026, 2:41:13 PM | 10.5 | 46.5 | 75% |
| 9/27/2026, 12:00:39 PM | 10.7 | 46.5 | 76% |
| 9/27/2026, 3:38:58 PM | 10.7 | 46.5 | 76% |
| 10/1/2026, 5:33:08 PM | 6.1 | 45.7 | 65% |
| 10/4/2026, 3:47:27 PM | 7.3 | 47.4 | 68% |
| 10/11/2026, 4:43:26 PM | 6.6 | 45.2 | 67% |
| 10/18/2026, 2:23:54 PM | 7.6 | 49.4 | 69% |