Predicted scoreLikely
Kentucky
18.0
Tennessee
27.4
Tennessee win probability: 73%
Margin (Tennessee − Kentucky): 9.4 (80% range -10 to 28)
Total: 45.4 (80% range 24 to 68)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 17 | 24 | 1.05% |
| 10 | 17 | 0.80% |
| 7 | 24 | 0.78% |
| 10 | 24 | 0.76% |
| 17 | 31 | 0.74% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Darker = more likely. The dot marks the predicted score; the dashed line is where home and away are tied.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:56:22 PM | 8.8 | 48.3 | 71% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:06:22 PM | 8.8 | 48.3 | 71% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:32:05 PM | 8.8 | 48.3 | 71% |
| 9/4/2026, 10:49:16 AM | 8.7 | 48.3 | 71% |
| 9/6/2026, 2:04:51 PM | 9.0 | 48.3 | 72% |
| 9/8/2026, 6:03:17 PM | 8.7 | 48.9 | 72% |
| 9/11/2026, 12:57:15 PM | 8.8 | 47.9 | 72% |
| 9/13/2026, 2:59:41 PM | 15.5 | 46.4 | 85% |
| 9/20/2026, 2:41:08 PM | 15.5 | 46.4 | 85% |
| 9/27/2026, 12:00:34 PM | 16.2 | 46.5 | 86% |
| 9/27/2026, 3:38:53 PM | 16.2 | 46.5 | 86% |
| 10/1/2026, 5:33:13 PM | 11.4 | 45.7 | 78% |
| 10/4/2026, 3:47:39 PM | 10.0 | 45.9 | 74% |
| 10/11/2026, 4:43:20 PM | 8.0 | 46.8 | 70% |
| 10/18/2026, 2:23:46 PM | 9.4 | 45.4 | 73% |