Predicted scoreToss-up
Duke
30.0
NC State
29.3
NC State win probability: 48%
Margin (NC State − Duke): -0.7 (80% range -21 to 21)
Total: 59.3 (80% range 34 to 86)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 24 | 24 | 0.64% |
| 31 | 31 | 0.63% |
| 31 | 24 | 0.60% |
| 21 | 24 | 0.58% |
| 24 | 31 | 0.57% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:56:18 PM | -0.8 | 59.3 | 48% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:06:17 PM | -0.7 | 59.4 | 48% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:31:58 PM | -0.7 | 59.3 | 48% |