Predicted scoreToss-up
Duke
29.2
NC State
26.9
NC State win probability: 44%
Margin (NC State − Duke): -2.3 (80% range -23 to 18)
Total: 56.1 (80% range 33 to 81)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 31 | 24 | 0.73% |
| 24 | 24 | 0.71% |
| 24 | 21 | 0.61% |
| 24 | 17 | 0.60% |
| 24 | 31 | 0.53% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Darker = more likely. The dot marks the predicted score; the dashed line is where home and away are tied.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:56:18 PM | -0.8 | 59.3 | 48% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:06:17 PM | -0.7 | 59.4 | 48% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:31:58 PM | -0.7 | 59.3 | 48% |
| 9/4/2026, 10:49:13 AM | -0.8 | 59.3 | 48% |
| 9/6/2026, 2:04:54 PM | -0.7 | 59.4 | 48% |
| 9/8/2026, 6:03:22 PM | 0.3 | 59.6 | 51% |
| 9/11/2026, 12:57:23 PM | -3.2 | 55.8 | 42% |
| 9/13/2026, 2:59:46 PM | -3.2 | 57.6 | 42% |
| 9/20/2026, 2:41:21 PM | -3.2 | 57.7 | 42% |
| 9/27/2026, 12:00:42 PM | -2.9 | 57.6 | 43% |
| 9/27/2026, 3:38:56 PM | -2.9 | 57.6 | 43% |
| 10/1/2026, 5:33:10 PM | -4.7 | 54.4 | 39% |
| 10/4/2026, 3:47:36 PM | -2.7 | 55.1 | 43% |
| 10/11/2026, 4:43:03 PM | -3.1 | 56.4 | 43% |
| 10/18/2026, 2:23:48 PM | -2.3 | 56.1 | 44% |