2026 Week 9 · Nov 1, 2026, 2:30 AM · Allegiant Stadium
Northern Illinois @ UNLV
Predicted scoreConfident
Northern Illinois
17.2
UNLV
33.9
UNLV win probability: 86%
Margin (UNLV − Northern Illinois): 16.6 (80% range -3 to 38)
Total: 51.1 (80% range 28 to 75)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 10 | 31 | 0.78% |
| 10 | 24 | 0.74% |
| 17 | 31 | 0.73% |
| 14 | 31 | 0.68% |
| 14 | 24 | 0.68% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Darker = more likely. The dot marks the predicted score; the dashed line is where home and away are tied.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:56:07 PM | 16.4 | 55.5 | 85% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:06:11 PM | 16.3 | 55.5 | 85% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:31:41 PM | 16.4 | 55.4 | 85% |
| 9/4/2026, 10:48:37 AM | 16.3 | 55.4 | 85% |
| 9/6/2026, 2:04:19 PM | 16.4 | 55.4 | 85% |
| 9/8/2026, 6:02:17 PM | 17.1 | 55.5 | 86% |
| 9/11/2026, 12:56:44 PM | 18.2 | 49.8 | 88% |
| 9/13/2026, 2:58:55 PM | 15.7 | 48.8 | 84% |
| 9/20/2026, 2:40:30 PM | 15.7 | 48.8 | 84% |
| 9/27/2026, 12:00:02 PM | 16.6 | 48.9 | 86% |
| 9/27/2026, 3:38:31 PM | 16.5 | 48.9 | 86% |
| 10/1/2026, 5:32:31 PM | 16.6 | 49.2 | 86% |
| 10/4/2026, 3:47:01 PM | 17.0 | 49.7 | 86% |
| 10/11/2026, 4:42:41 PM | 17.1 | 47.1 | 87% |
| 10/18/2026, 2:23:38 PM | 16.6 | 51.1 | 86% |