2026 Week 9 · Oct 31, 2026, 4:00 AM · S.B. Ballard Stadium
Marshall @ Old Dominion
Predicted scoreLean
Marshall
21.9
Old Dominion
26.3
Old Dominion win probability: 61%
Margin (Old Dominion − Marshall): 4.3 (80% range -15 to 24)
Total: 48.2 (80% range 27 to 72)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 24 | 24 | 0.81% |
| 17 | 17 | 0.72% |
| 17 | 21 | 0.70% |
| 17 | 31 | 0.66% |
| 17 | 24 | 0.65% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Darker = more likely. The dot marks the predicted score; the dashed line is where home and away are tied.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:56:03 PM | 11.0 | 51.9 | 76% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:06:00 PM | 11.0 | 51.9 | 76% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:31:26 PM | 11.0 | 51.9 | 76% |
| 9/4/2026, 10:48:47 AM | 11.0 | 51.9 | 76% |
| 9/6/2026, 2:04:24 PM | 11.0 | 51.9 | 76% |
| 9/8/2026, 6:02:48 PM | 10.1 | 52.6 | 74% |
| 9/11/2026, 12:56:26 PM | 13.3 | 51.6 | 81% |
| 9/13/2026, 2:59:13 PM | 11.0 | 50.4 | 76% |
| 9/20/2026, 2:40:43 PM | 11.0 | 50.3 | 76% |
| 9/27/2026, 12:00:03 PM | 11.1 | 50.4 | 76% |
| 9/27/2026, 3:38:32 PM | 11.1 | 50.4 | 76% |
| 10/1/2026, 5:32:32 PM | 6.9 | 50.9 | 67% |
| 10/4/2026, 3:47:02 PM | 4.4 | 50.3 | 61% |
| 10/11/2026, 4:42:42 PM | 5.7 | 47.9 | 64% |
| 10/18/2026, 2:23:21 PM | 4.3 | 48.2 | 61% |