Predicted scoreLikely
Wisconsin
18.1
Iowa
26.9
Iowa win probability: 72%
Margin (Iowa − Wisconsin): 8.8 (80% range -10 to 28)
Total: 45.0 (80% range 24 to 67)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 17 | 24 | 0.91% |
| 14 | 17 | 0.77% |
| 10 | 24 | 0.73% |
| 7 | 17 | 0.72% |
| 7 | 24 | 0.71% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Darker = more likely. The dot marks the predicted score; the dashed line is where home and away are tied.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:55:59 PM | 12.8 | 41.1 | 81% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:06:08 PM | 12.8 | 41.1 | 81% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:31:13 PM | 12.8 | 41.1 | 81% |
| 9/4/2026, 10:48:35 AM | 12.8 | 41.1 | 81% |
| 9/6/2026, 2:04:37 PM | 12.9 | 41.1 | 81% |
| 9/8/2026, 6:02:29 PM | 11.7 | 41.0 | 79% |
| 9/11/2026, 12:56:12 PM | 13.9 | 39.6 | 83% |
| 9/13/2026, 2:59:14 PM | 13.7 | 40.8 | 83% |
| 9/20/2026, 2:40:50 PM | 13.7 | 40.8 | 83% |
| 9/27/2026, 12:00:11 PM | 14.0 | 41.0 | 83% |
| 9/27/2026, 3:38:39 PM | 14.0 | 41.0 | 83% |
| 10/1/2026, 5:32:40 PM | 9.8 | 41.6 | 75% |
| 10/4/2026, 3:47:07 PM | 6.6 | 42.3 | 67% |
| 10/11/2026, 4:42:50 PM | 6.5 | 44.6 | 67% |
| 10/18/2026, 2:23:27 PM | 8.8 | 45.0 | 72% |