2026 Week 9 · Oct 31, 2026, 4:00 AM · CEFCU Stadium
New Mexico @ San José State
Predicted scoreLikely
New Mexico
33.0
San José State
17.1
San José State win probability: 15%
Margin (San José State − New Mexico): -15.9 (80% range -36 to 4)
Total: 50.1 (80% range 28 to 73)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 31 | 17 | 0.83% |
| 31 | 10 | 0.80% |
| 24 | 10 | 0.76% |
| 24 | 14 | 0.71% |
| 28 | 17 | 0.71% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Darker = more likely. The dot marks the predicted score; the dashed line is where home and away are tied.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:56:05 PM | -6.8 | 53.8 | 33% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:06:03 PM | -6.8 | 53.8 | 33% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:31:19 PM | -6.9 | 53.8 | 33% |
| 9/4/2026, 10:48:32 AM | -6.8 | 53.8 | 33% |
| 9/6/2026, 2:04:23 PM | -6.9 | 53.7 | 33% |
| 9/8/2026, 6:02:49 PM | -6.6 | 53.7 | 34% |
| 9/11/2026, 12:56:17 PM | -6.8 | 52.0 | 33% |
| 9/13/2026, 2:59:01 PM | -7.8 | 52.0 | 31% |
| 9/20/2026, 2:40:38 PM | -7.8 | 52.0 | 31% |
| 9/27/2026, 11:59:55 AM | -7.5 | 52.0 | 31% |
| 9/27/2026, 3:38:23 PM | -7.6 | 51.9 | 31% |
| 10/1/2026, 5:32:23 PM | -14.1 | 50.3 | 18% |
| 10/4/2026, 3:47:17 PM | -16.1 | 50.8 | 15% |
| 10/11/2026, 4:42:32 PM | -16.3 | 49.3 | 14% |
| 10/18/2026, 2:23:31 PM | -15.9 | 50.1 | 15% |