2026 Week 9 · Oct 31, 2026, 4:00 AM · L&N Federal Credit Union Stadium
Stanford @ Louisville
Predicted scoreConfident
Stanford
15.8
Louisville
39.0
Louisville win probability: 93%
Margin (Louisville − Stanford): 23.2 (80% range 3 to 44)
Total: 54.8 (80% range 31 to 79)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 17 | 38 | 0.89% |
| 10 | 38 | 0.88% |
| 7 | 31 | 0.82% |
| 10 | 35 | 0.75% |
| 7 | 38 | 0.72% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Darker = more likely. The dot marks the predicted score; the dashed line is where home and away are tied.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:56:00 PM | 16.3 | 48.3 | 86% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:06:08 PM | 16.3 | 48.3 | 86% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:31:13 PM | 16.4 | 48.3 | 86% |
| 9/4/2026, 10:48:34 AM | 16.2 | 48.2 | 85% |
| 9/6/2026, 2:04:35 PM | 16.3 | 48.2 | 85% |
| 9/8/2026, 6:02:50 PM | 15.7 | 48.5 | 85% |
| 9/11/2026, 12:56:19 PM | 19.1 | 51.4 | 89% |
| 9/13/2026, 2:59:09 PM | 19.7 | 51.8 | 90% |
| 9/20/2026, 2:40:52 PM | 19.7 | 51.9 | 90% |
| 9/27/2026, 12:00:09 PM | 21.5 | 52.0 | 92% |
| 9/27/2026, 3:38:37 PM | 21.5 | 52.0 | 92% |
| 10/1/2026, 5:32:38 PM | 19.5 | 53.4 | 89% |
| 10/4/2026, 3:47:06 PM | 21.2 | 53.8 | 91% |
| 10/11/2026, 4:42:48 PM | 22.9 | 54.7 | 93% |
| 10/18/2026, 2:23:28 PM | 23.2 | 54.8 | 93% |