2026 Week 9 · Oct 29, 2026, 12:00 AM · Aggie Memorial Stadium
Jacksonville State @ New Mexico State
Predicted scoreToss-up
Jacksonville State
26.3
New Mexico State
28.1
New Mexico State win probability: 55%
Margin (New Mexico State − Jacksonville State): 1.9 (80% range -18 to 22)
Total: 54.4 (80% range 31 to 79)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 21 | 24 | 0.69% |
| 17 | 24 | 0.65% |
| 24 | 31 | 0.64% |
| 24 | 21 | 0.63% |
| 24 | 17 | 0.60% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Darker = more likely. The dot marks the predicted score; the dashed line is where home and away are tied.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:56:02 PM | -2.5 | 53.0 | 44% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:05:58 PM | -2.5 | 53.0 | 44% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:31:03 PM | -2.5 | 52.9 | 44% |
| 9/4/2026, 10:48:23 AM | -2.5 | 52.9 | 44% |
| 9/6/2026, 2:04:29 PM | -2.4 | 52.9 | 44% |
| 9/8/2026, 6:02:39 PM | -2.4 | 52.8 | 44% |
| 9/11/2026, 12:56:40 PM | 0.3 | 54.6 | 51% |
| 9/13/2026, 2:58:57 PM | 0.9 | 52.7 | 53% |
| 9/20/2026, 2:40:54 PM | 1.0 | 52.7 | 53% |
| 9/27/2026, 11:59:50 AM | 0.9 | 52.7 | 52% |
| 9/27/2026, 3:38:19 PM | 0.9 | 52.7 | 52% |
| 10/1/2026, 5:32:19 PM | 2.2 | 53.6 | 55% |
| 10/4/2026, 3:47:19 PM | 4.5 | 53.8 | 61% |
| 10/11/2026, 4:42:28 PM | 1.6 | 53.6 | 54% |
| 10/18/2026, 2:23:29 PM | 1.9 | 54.4 | 55% |