2026 Week 9 · Oct 28, 2026, 12:00 AM · Plaster Sports Complex
Sam Houston @ Missouri State
Predicted scoreLikely
Sam Houston
19.4
Missouri State
31.3
Missouri State win probability: 78%
Margin (Missouri State − Sam Houston): 11.9 (80% range -7 to 32)
Total: 50.7 (80% range 28 to 75)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 17 | 31 | 0.83% |
| 14 | 24 | 0.83% |
| 21 | 31 | 0.71% |
| 7 | 24 | 0.67% |
| 17 | 38 | 0.67% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:56:09 PM | 11.9 | 50.7 | 78% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:05:58 PM | 11.9 | 50.7 | 78% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:31:02 PM | 11.9 | 50.7 | 78% |