2026 Week 9 · Oct 28, 2026, 12:00 AM · Plaster Sports Complex
Sam Houston @ Missouri State
Predicted scoreLean
Sam Houston
22.5
Missouri State
27.8
Missouri State win probability: 63%
Margin (Missouri State − Sam Houston): 5.3 (80% range -14 to 25)
Total: 50.3 (80% range 28 to 74)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 24 | 24 | 0.76% |
| 17 | 24 | 0.76% |
| 21 | 24 | 0.72% |
| 14 | 24 | 0.72% |
| 17 | 21 | 0.69% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Darker = more likely. The dot marks the predicted score; the dashed line is where home and away are tied.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:56:09 PM | 11.9 | 50.7 | 78% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:05:58 PM | 11.9 | 50.7 | 78% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:31:02 PM | 11.9 | 50.7 | 78% |
| 9/4/2026, 10:48:22 AM | 11.9 | 50.7 | 78% |
| 9/6/2026, 2:04:28 PM | 11.9 | 50.7 | 78% |
| 9/8/2026, 6:02:37 PM | 11.7 | 50.7 | 77% |
| 9/11/2026, 12:56:45 PM | 5.8 | 49.2 | 64% |
| 9/13/2026, 2:58:56 PM | 6.1 | 51.1 | 65% |
| 9/20/2026, 2:40:40 PM | 6.1 | 51.1 | 65% |
| 9/27/2026, 11:59:49 AM | 6.4 | 51.1 | 66% |
| 9/27/2026, 3:38:18 PM | 6.4 | 51.1 | 66% |
| 10/1/2026, 5:32:18 PM | 5.2 | 49.7 | 63% |
| 10/4/2026, 3:47:18 PM | 5.4 | 50.7 | 64% |
| 10/11/2026, 4:42:27 PM | 3.2 | 51.7 | 58% |
| 10/18/2026, 2:23:28 PM | 5.3 | 50.3 | 63% |