2026 Week 8 · Oct 24, 2026, 4:00 AM · University Stadium (NM)
North Dakota State @ New Mexico
Predicted scoreLikely
North Dakota State
15.9
New Mexico
27.2
New Mexico win probability: 78%
Margin (New Mexico − North Dakota State): 11.3 (80% range -7 to 31)
Total: 43.2 (80% range 23 to 65)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 7 | 17 | 0.89% |
| 10 | 24 | 0.86% |
| 10 | 21 | 0.84% |
| 7 | 24 | 0.81% |
| 10 | 17 | 0.81% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Darker = more likely. The dot marks the predicted score; the dashed line is where home and away are tied.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 9/3/2026, 2:31:01 PM | 3.4 | 57.0 | 57% |
| 9/4/2026, 10:48:14 AM | 3.4 | 57.0 | 57% |
| 9/6/2026, 2:04:07 PM | 3.3 | 57.0 | 57% |
| 9/8/2026, 6:01:55 PM | 3.3 | 57.7 | 57% |
| 9/11/2026, 12:56:10 PM | -5.7 | 42.6 | 35% |
| 9/13/2026, 2:58:27 PM | 3.4 | 46.6 | 59% |
| 9/20/2026, 2:40:29 PM | 3.3 | 46.7 | 58% |
| 9/27/2026, 11:59:32 AM | 3.6 | 46.7 | 59% |
| 9/27/2026, 3:38:05 PM | 3.6 | 46.7 | 59% |
| 10/1/2026, 5:32:09 PM | 13.3 | 45.1 | 81% |
| 10/4/2026, 3:46:58 PM | 13.3 | 45.7 | 81% |
| 10/11/2026, 4:41:56 PM | 12.9 | 44.8 | 81% |
| 10/18/2026, 2:23:02 PM | 11.3 | 43.2 | 78% |