Predicted scoreLikely
Iowa
26.4
Minnesota
16.1
Minnesota win probability: 24%
Margin (Minnesota − Iowa): -10.2 (80% range -29 to 8)
Total: 42.5 (80% range 23 to 64)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 24 | 14 | 0.92% |
| 17 | 10 | 0.87% |
| 24 | 17 | 0.87% |
| 21 | 10 | 0.86% |
| 24 | 10 | 0.84% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Darker = more likely. The dot marks the predicted score; the dashed line is where home and away are tied.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:55:48 PM | -8.5 | 42.9 | 28% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:05:51 PM | -8.5 | 42.9 | 28% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:30:31 PM | -8.5 | 42.9 | 28% |
| 9/4/2026, 10:47:47 AM | -8.5 | 42.9 | 28% |
| 9/6/2026, 2:04:14 PM | -8.2 | 43.0 | 29% |
| 9/8/2026, 6:02:09 PM | -8.9 | 42.9 | 27% |
| 9/11/2026, 12:55:59 PM | -10.4 | 40.5 | 24% |
| 9/13/2026, 2:58:35 PM | -13.0 | 42.0 | 19% |
| 9/20/2026, 2:40:21 PM | -13.0 | 42.0 | 19% |
| 9/27/2026, 11:59:43 AM | -12.1 | 41.9 | 20% |
| 9/27/2026, 3:38:09 PM | -12.2 | 41.9 | 20% |
| 10/1/2026, 5:31:57 PM | -9.1 | 40.6 | 27% |
| 10/4/2026, 3:46:45 PM | -7.5 | 40.9 | 30% |
| 10/11/2026, 4:42:05 PM | -10.6 | 43.1 | 24% |
| 10/18/2026, 2:23:15 PM | -10.2 | 42.5 | 24% |