2026 Week 8 · Oct 24, 2026, 4:00 AM · Scheumann Stadium
Sacramento State @ Ball State
Predicted scoreConfident
Sacramento State
18.4
Ball State
35.5
Ball State win probability: 86%
Margin (Ball State − Sacramento State): 17.2 (80% range -3 to 38)
Total: 53.9 (80% range 31 to 79)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 14 | 31 | 0.81% |
| 10 | 31 | 0.74% |
| 10 | 28 | 0.72% |
| 17 | 38 | 0.71% |
| 14 | 24 | 0.71% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Darker = more likely. The dot marks the predicted score; the dashed line is where home and away are tied.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 9/3/2026, 2:30:52 PM | -12.0 | 52.9 | 25% |
| 9/4/2026, 10:47:46 AM | -12.0 | 52.9 | 25% |
| 9/6/2026, 2:03:59 PM | -12.1 | 52.9 | 24% |
| 9/8/2026, 6:01:36 PM | -12.2 | 53.0 | 24% |
| 9/11/2026, 12:55:58 PM | 1.8 | 42.2 | 55% |
| 9/13/2026, 2:58:33 PM | 10.0 | 51.0 | 73% |
| 9/20/2026, 2:40:14 PM | 10.1 | 51.0 | 73% |
| 9/27/2026, 11:59:28 AM | 10.5 | 50.9 | 74% |
| 9/27/2026, 3:38:01 PM | 10.6 | 50.9 | 74% |
| 10/1/2026, 5:31:55 PM | 10.7 | 49.4 | 76% |
| 10/4/2026, 3:46:47 PM | 12.4 | 49.9 | 79% |
| 10/11/2026, 4:42:05 PM | 13.8 | 51.2 | 81% |
| 10/18/2026, 2:23:12 PM | 17.2 | 53.9 | 86% |