2026 Week 8 · Oct 24, 2026, 4:00 AM · Huskie Stadium
Hawai'i @ Northern Illinois
Predicted scoreToss-up
Hawai'i
25.4
Northern Illinois
25.9
Northern Illinois win probability: 51%
Margin (Northern Illinois − Hawai'i): 0.5 (80% range -20 to 21)
Total: 51.2 (80% range 28 to 76)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 17 | 17 | 0.69% |
| 24 | 24 | 0.68% |
| 24 | 17 | 0.68% |
| 24 | 21 | 0.65% |
| 17 | 24 | 0.64% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Darker = more likely. The dot marks the predicted score; the dashed line is where home and away are tied.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:55:49 PM | -1.3 | 51.8 | 46% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:05:52 PM | -1.3 | 51.7 | 46% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:30:51 PM | -1.3 | 51.7 | 46% |
| 9/4/2026, 10:48:08 AM | -1.3 | 51.7 | 46% |
| 9/6/2026, 2:04:02 PM | -1.6 | 51.6 | 46% |
| 9/8/2026, 6:02:14 PM | -1.7 | 52.0 | 46% |
| 9/11/2026, 12:55:51 PM | -3.6 | 47.3 | 41% |
| 9/13/2026, 2:58:47 PM | -0.8 | 48.3 | 48% |
| 9/20/2026, 2:40:14 PM | -0.8 | 48.3 | 48% |
| 9/27/2026, 11:59:27 AM | -0.8 | 48.2 | 48% |
| 9/27/2026, 3:37:53 PM | -0.8 | 48.2 | 48% |
| 10/1/2026, 5:32:02 PM | -0.4 | 48.9 | 49% |
| 10/4/2026, 3:46:54 PM | 2.0 | 50.6 | 55% |
| 10/11/2026, 4:41:58 PM | 0.8 | 51.3 | 52% |
| 10/18/2026, 2:23:05 PM | 0.5 | 51.2 | 51% |