Predicted scoreLean
NC State
27.8
Stanford
23.4
Stanford win probability: 39%
Margin (Stanford − NC State): -4.4 (80% range -24 to 15)
Total: 51.2 (80% range 28 to 75)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 24 | 17 | 0.76% |
| 24 | 24 | 0.76% |
| 31 | 17 | 0.69% |
| 21 | 17 | 0.68% |
| 24 | 14 | 0.67% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Darker = more likely. The dot marks the predicted score; the dashed line is where home and away are tied.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:55:51 PM | -0.7 | 50.9 | 49% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:05:47 PM | -0.7 | 50.8 | 48% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:30:29 PM | -0.7 | 50.8 | 48% |
| 9/4/2026, 10:47:44 AM | -0.7 | 50.7 | 48% |
| 9/6/2026, 2:04:11 PM | -0.7 | 50.7 | 49% |
| 9/8/2026, 6:02:03 PM | -1.3 | 51.1 | 47% |
| 9/11/2026, 12:55:38 PM | 1.1 | 52.2 | 53% |
| 9/13/2026, 2:58:49 PM | 0.4 | 52.0 | 51% |
| 9/20/2026, 2:40:05 PM | -0.5 | 52.1 | 49% |
| 9/27/2026, 11:59:34 AM | -0.6 | 52.0 | 48% |
| 9/27/2026, 3:38:11 PM | -0.6 | 52.0 | 48% |
| 10/1/2026, 5:31:48 PM | -1.7 | 51.8 | 46% |
| 10/4/2026, 3:46:41 PM | -4.8 | 51.9 | 38% |
| 10/11/2026, 4:42:04 PM | -4.1 | 51.7 | 39% |
| 10/18/2026, 2:22:59 PM | -4.4 | 51.2 | 39% |