Predicted scoreToss-up
Army
26.8
Tulsa
26.4
Tulsa win probability: 49%
Margin (Tulsa − Army): -0.4 (80% range -21 to 20)
Total: 53.2 (80% range 30 to 78)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 24 | 24 | 0.78% |
| 24 | 21 | 0.66% |
| 31 | 24 | 0.65% |
| 24 | 31 | 0.65% |
| 28 | 24 | 0.61% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Darker = more likely. The dot marks the predicted score; the dashed line is where home and away are tied.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:55:53 PM | -10.3 | 49.9 | 25% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:05:47 PM | -10.3 | 49.9 | 25% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:30:27 PM | -10.3 | 49.9 | 25% |
| 9/4/2026, 10:47:42 AM | -10.3 | 49.9 | 25% |
| 9/6/2026, 2:04:10 PM | -10.3 | 49.8 | 25% |
| 9/8/2026, 6:02:02 PM | -10.0 | 49.6 | 26% |
| 9/11/2026, 12:55:37 PM | -9.0 | 48.3 | 28% |
| 9/13/2026, 2:58:21 PM | -5.8 | 51.5 | 36% |
| 9/20/2026, 2:40:05 PM | -5.8 | 51.6 | 36% |
| 9/27/2026, 11:59:36 AM | -5.6 | 51.5 | 36% |
| 9/27/2026, 3:38:12 PM | -5.7 | 51.5 | 36% |
| 10/1/2026, 5:32:16 PM | -1.8 | 49.2 | 45% |
| 10/4/2026, 3:46:41 PM | 0.3 | 52.5 | 51% |
| 10/11/2026, 4:42:03 PM | 1.1 | 51.9 | 53% |
| 10/18/2026, 2:23:06 PM | -0.4 | 53.2 | 49% |