Predicted scoreToss-up
Duke
25.9
Virginia
26.0
Virginia win probability: 51%
Margin (Virginia − Duke): 0.1 (80% range -21 to 21)
Total: 51.9 (80% range 30 to 76)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 24 | 24 | 0.80% |
| 17 | 24 | 0.69% |
| 21 | 24 | 0.60% |
| 31 | 24 | 0.60% |
| 24 | 17 | 0.58% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Darker = more likely. The dot marks the predicted score; the dashed line is where home and away are tied.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:55:54 PM | 2.6 | 57.4 | 56% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:05:46 PM | 2.7 | 57.5 | 57% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:30:26 PM | 2.6 | 57.4 | 56% |
| 9/4/2026, 10:47:41 AM | 2.7 | 57.5 | 57% |
| 9/6/2026, 2:04:10 PM | 2.6 | 57.4 | 56% |
| 9/8/2026, 6:02:01 PM | 1.9 | 57.2 | 54% |
| 9/11/2026, 12:55:35 PM | 4.7 | 53.6 | 62% |
| 9/13/2026, 2:58:23 PM | 5.0 | 54.3 | 62% |
| 9/20/2026, 2:40:04 PM | 4.9 | 54.4 | 62% |
| 9/27/2026, 11:59:37 AM | 5.0 | 54.4 | 62% |
| 9/27/2026, 3:38:14 PM | 5.0 | 54.4 | 62% |
| 10/1/2026, 5:32:15 PM | 0.6 | 53.4 | 51% |
| 10/4/2026, 3:46:40 PM | -1.8 | 53.1 | 45% |
| 10/11/2026, 4:42:03 PM | -0.4 | 52.9 | 49% |
| 10/18/2026, 2:23:04 PM | 0.1 | 51.9 | 51% |