Predicted scoreToss-up
Duke
27.4
Virginia
30.0
Virginia win probability: 56%
Margin (Virginia − Duke): 2.6 (80% range -18 to 24)
Total: 57.4 (80% range 34 to 83)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 24 | 24 | 0.78% |
| 24 | 31 | 0.71% |
| 31 | 31 | 0.65% |
| 17 | 24 | 0.53% |
| 17 | 31 | 0.53% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:55:54 PM | 2.6 | 57.4 | 56% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:05:46 PM | 2.7 | 57.5 | 57% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:30:26 PM | 2.6 | 57.4 | 56% |