2026 Week 8 · Oct 22, 2026, 12:00 AM · Elliott T. Bowers Stadium
New Mexico State @ Sam Houston
Predicted scoreToss-up
New Mexico State
27.4
Sam Houston
24.3
Sam Houston win probability: 42%
Margin (Sam Houston − New Mexico State): -3.1 (80% range -24 to 17)
Total: 51.7 (80% range 29 to 76)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 24 | 24 | 0.72% |
| 24 | 17 | 0.69% |
| 21 | 24 | 0.67% |
| 31 | 24 | 0.65% |
| 17 | 17 | 0.65% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Darker = more likely. The dot marks the predicted score; the dashed line is where home and away are tied.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:55:50 PM | -3.2 | 51.9 | 42% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:05:45 PM | -3.1 | 50.7 | 42% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:30:23 PM | -3.3 | 51.9 | 42% |
| 9/4/2026, 10:47:38 AM | -3.3 | 51.9 | 42% |
| 9/6/2026, 2:04:08 PM | -3.3 | 51.9 | 42% |
| 9/8/2026, 6:01:58 PM | -3.4 | 50.0 | 42% |
| 9/11/2026, 12:55:33 PM | -3.9 | 54.7 | 40% |
| 9/13/2026, 2:58:25 PM | -3.7 | 55.6 | 41% |
| 9/20/2026, 2:40:01 PM | -3.6 | 55.5 | 41% |
| 9/27/2026, 11:59:39 AM | -3.6 | 55.5 | 41% |
| 9/27/2026, 3:38:16 PM | -3.6 | 55.5 | 41% |
| 10/1/2026, 5:32:13 PM | 1.0 | 54.1 | 53% |
| 10/4/2026, 3:46:38 PM | -1.4 | 53.6 | 47% |
| 10/11/2026, 4:42:00 PM | -2.7 | 53.1 | 43% |
| 10/18/2026, 2:22:58 PM | -3.1 | 51.7 | 42% |