2026 Week 8 · Oct 22, 2026, 12:00 AM · Elliott T. Bowers Stadium
New Mexico State @ Sam Houston
Predicted scoreToss-up
New Mexico State
27.6
Sam Houston
24.3
Sam Houston win probability: 42%
Margin (Sam Houston − New Mexico State): -3.3 (80% range -24 to 17)
Total: 51.9 (80% range 30 to 76)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 24 | 17 | 0.78% |
| 24 | 21 | 0.70% |
| 21 | 17 | 0.69% |
| 31 | 24 | 0.66% |
| 21 | 24 | 0.64% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:55:50 PM | -3.2 | 51.9 | 42% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:05:45 PM | -3.1 | 50.7 | 42% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:30:23 PM | -3.3 | 51.9 | 42% |