Predicted scoreLean
UNLV
32.9
Air Force
27.5
Air Force win probability: 37%
Margin (Air Force − UNLV): -5.4 (80% range -26 to 15)
Total: 60.4 (80% range 35 to 86)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 31 | 24 | 0.75% |
| 31 | 31 | 0.66% |
| 24 | 24 | 0.64% |
| 28 | 21 | 0.58% |
| 28 | 24 | 0.58% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:55:27 PM | -5.4 | 60.4 | 37% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:05:43 PM | -5.4 | 60.4 | 37% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:30:17 PM | -5.4 | 60.4 | 37% |