Predicted scoreToss-up
UNLV
26.5
Air Force
26.5
Air Force win probability: 50%
Margin (Air Force − UNLV): -0.0 (80% range -20 to 20)
Total: 53.0 (80% range 30 to 78)
Actual: UNLV 31 – Air Force 41 (margin error 10.0, total error 19.0)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 24 | 24 | 0.80% |
| 31 | 24 | 0.70% |
| 17 | 21 | 0.66% |
| 24 | 17 | 0.66% |
| 21 | 24 | 0.62% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Darker = more likely. The dot marks the predicted score; the dashed line is where home and away are tied.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:55:27 PM | -5.4 | 60.4 | 37% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:05:43 PM | -5.4 | 60.4 | 37% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:30:17 PM | -5.4 | 60.4 | 37% |
| 9/4/2026, 10:47:10 AM | -5.4 | 60.4 | 37% |
| 9/6/2026, 2:03:56 PM | -5.4 | 60.4 | 37% |
| 9/8/2026, 6:01:30 PM | -5.3 | 60.7 | 37% |
| 9/11/2026, 12:55:27 PM | -6.1 | 58.6 | 35% |
| 9/13/2026, 2:58:18 PM | -0.6 | 57.9 | 49% |
| 9/20/2026, 2:39:32 PM | -0.6 | 58.0 | 49% |
| 9/27/2026, 11:58:48 AM | -0.2 | 57.9 | 49% |
| 9/27/2026, 3:37:47 PM | -0.2 | 57.9 | 49% |
| 10/1/2026, 5:31:44 PM | -1.3 | 57.2 | 47% |
| 10/4/2026, 3:46:17 PM | -0.4 | 54.2 | 49% |
| 10/11/2026, 4:41:55 PM | -0.0 | 53.0 | 50% |