2026 Week 7 · Oct 17, 2026, 4:00 PM · Michie Stadium
Florida Atlantic @ Army
Predicted scoreLean
Florida Atlantic
24.0
Army
28.3
Army win probability: 61%
Margin (Army − Florida Atlantic): 4.3 (80% range -15 to 24)
Total: 52.4 (80% range 30 to 76)
Actual: Florida Atlantic 24 – Army 56 (margin error 27.7, total error 27.6)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 24 | 24 | 0.83% |
| 17 | 24 | 0.76% |
| 21 | 24 | 0.74% |
| 14 | 24 | 0.73% |
| 24 | 31 | 0.70% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Darker = more likely. The dot marks the predicted score; the dashed line is where home and away are tied.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:55:27 PM | 10.7 | 48.1 | 76% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:05:43 PM | 10.7 | 48.1 | 76% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:30:16 PM | 10.7 | 48.1 | 76% |
| 9/4/2026, 10:47:09 AM | 10.6 | 48.1 | 76% |
| 9/6/2026, 2:03:55 PM | 10.8 | 48.2 | 76% |
| 9/8/2026, 6:01:30 PM | 10.9 | 48.0 | 77% |
| 9/11/2026, 12:55:25 PM | 13.3 | 52.4 | 80% |
| 9/13/2026, 2:58:18 PM | 10.3 | 55.1 | 74% |
| 9/20/2026, 2:39:33 PM | 10.1 | 55.6 | 74% |
| 9/27/2026, 11:59:09 AM | 10.2 | 55.6 | 74% |
| 9/27/2026, 3:37:22 PM | 10.1 | 55.6 | 74% |
| 10/1/2026, 5:31:21 PM | 6.6 | 52.4 | 66% |
| 10/4/2026, 3:46:36 PM | 4.6 | 55.0 | 62% |
| 10/11/2026, 4:41:27 PM | 4.3 | 52.4 | 61% |