Predicted scoreLean
Alabama
27.7
Tennessee
23.2
Tennessee win probability: 39%
Margin (Tennessee − Alabama): -4.5 (80% range -25 to 15)
Total: 50.9 (80% range 28 to 75)
Actual: Alabama 10 – Tennessee 26 (margin error 20.5, total error 14.9)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 24 | 17 | 0.81% |
| 24 | 21 | 0.71% |
| 24 | 24 | 0.68% |
| 31 | 17 | 0.64% |
| 21 | 17 | 0.64% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Darker = more likely. The dot marks the predicted score; the dashed line is where home and away are tied.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:55:38 PM | -1.0 | 54.9 | 47% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:05:38 PM | -1.0 | 54.9 | 47% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:29:56 PM | -1.0 | 54.9 | 47% |
| 9/4/2026, 10:47:24 AM | -1.0 | 54.9 | 47% |
| 9/6/2026, 2:03:46 PM | -1.0 | 54.9 | 47% |
| 9/8/2026, 6:01:13 PM | -0.7 | 54.6 | 48% |
| 9/11/2026, 12:55:00 PM | -3.4 | 53.7 | 42% |
| 9/13/2026, 2:58:05 PM | 0.3 | 52.5 | 51% |
| 9/20/2026, 2:39:31 PM | 0.2 | 52.5 | 51% |
| 9/27/2026, 11:59:10 AM | 0.5 | 52.5 | 51% |
| 9/27/2026, 3:37:23 PM | 0.5 | 52.5 | 51% |
| 10/1/2026, 5:31:20 PM | -2.8 | 53.2 | 43% |
| 10/4/2026, 3:46:35 PM | -4.6 | 51.7 | 38% |
| 10/11/2026, 4:41:28 PM | -4.5 | 50.9 | 39% |