2026 Week 7 · Oct 17, 2026, 4:00 AM · Clarence T.C. Ching Athletics Complex
New Mexico @ Hawai'i
Predicted scoreLikely
New Mexico
34.5
Hawai'i
19.3
Hawai'i win probability: 17%
Margin (Hawai'i − New Mexico): -15.2 (80% range -35 to 4)
Total: 53.9 (80% range 31 to 79)
Actual: New Mexico 21 – Hawai'i 10 (margin error 4.2, total error 22.9)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 31 | 14 | 0.77% |
| 31 | 17 | 0.71% |
| 38 | 17 | 0.67% |
| 28 | 10 | 0.66% |
| 31 | 10 | 0.66% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Darker = more likely. The dot marks the predicted score; the dashed line is where home and away are tied.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:55:31 PM | 1.4 | 53.8 | 53% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:05:34 PM | 1.4 | 53.8 | 53% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:30:13 PM | 1.4 | 53.7 | 53% |
| 9/4/2026, 10:47:32 AM | 1.4 | 53.7 | 53% |
| 9/6/2026, 2:03:40 PM | 1.3 | 53.6 | 53% |
| 9/8/2026, 6:01:28 PM | 0.7 | 53.0 | 52% |
| 9/11/2026, 12:55:21 PM | -5.5 | 52.3 | 36% |
| 9/13/2026, 2:58:00 PM | -7.1 | 52.5 | 33% |
| 9/20/2026, 2:39:42 PM | -7.1 | 52.5 | 33% |
| 9/27/2026, 11:58:49 AM | -7.3 | 52.4 | 32% |
| 9/27/2026, 3:37:46 PM | -7.3 | 52.4 | 32% |
| 10/1/2026, 5:31:38 PM | -13.0 | 53.2 | 20% |
| 10/4/2026, 3:46:23 PM | -14.8 | 52.9 | 17% |
| 10/11/2026, 4:41:42 PM | -15.2 | 53.9 | 17% |