2026 Week 7 · Oct 17, 2026, 4:00 AM · Clarence T.C. Ching Athletics Complex
New Mexico @ Hawai'i
Predicted scoreToss-up
New Mexico
26.2
Hawai'i
27.6
Hawai'i win probability: 53%
Margin (Hawai'i − New Mexico): 1.4 (80% range -18 to 21)
Total: 53.7 (80% range 31 to 79)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 24 | 24 | 0.68% |
| 21 | 24 | 0.67% |
| 17 | 24 | 0.63% |
| 24 | 17 | 0.59% |
| 24 | 21 | 0.58% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:55:31 PM | 1.4 | 53.8 | 53% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:05:34 PM | 1.4 | 53.8 | 53% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:30:13 PM | 1.4 | 53.7 | 53% |