2026 Week 7 · Oct 17, 2026, 4:00 AM · Wallace Wade Stadium
North Carolina @ Duke
Predicted scoreLikely
North Carolina
24.7
Duke
34.8
Duke win probability: 73%
Margin (Duke − North Carolina): 10.1 (80% range -11 to 31)
Total: 59.6 (80% range 35 to 86)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 24 | 31 | 0.64% |
| 17 | 31 | 0.64% |
| 24 | 24 | 0.61% |
| 24 | 38 | 0.58% |
| 14 | 31 | 0.58% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:55:30 PM | 10.1 | 59.5 | 73% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:05:38 PM | 10.1 | 59.6 | 73% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:30:15 PM | 10.1 | 59.6 | 73% |