2026 Week 7 · Oct 17, 2026, 4:00 AM · Wallace Wade Stadium
North Carolina @ Duke
Predicted scoreLean
North Carolina
24.1
Duke
29.2
Duke win probability: 63%
Margin (Duke − North Carolina): 5.1 (80% range -14 to 25)
Total: 53.3 (80% range 31 to 78)
Actual: North Carolina 24 – Duke 20 (margin error 9.1, total error 9.3)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 17 | 24 | 0.69% |
| 24 | 24 | 0.68% |
| 24 | 31 | 0.66% |
| 17 | 17 | 0.65% |
| 17 | 31 | 0.60% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Darker = more likely. The dot marks the predicted score; the dashed line is where home and away are tied.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:55:30 PM | 10.1 | 59.5 | 73% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:05:38 PM | 10.1 | 59.6 | 73% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:30:15 PM | 10.1 | 59.6 | 73% |
| 9/4/2026, 10:47:22 AM | 10.1 | 59.6 | 73% |
| 9/6/2026, 2:03:49 PM | 10.1 | 59.5 | 73% |
| 9/8/2026, 6:01:07 PM | 8.2 | 59.3 | 69% |
| 9/11/2026, 12:55:06 PM | 7.7 | 52.8 | 68% |
| 9/13/2026, 2:58:16 PM | 7.3 | 53.9 | 68% |
| 9/20/2026, 2:39:49 PM | 7.3 | 53.9 | 68% |
| 9/27/2026, 11:59:03 AM | 7.6 | 53.9 | 69% |
| 9/27/2026, 3:37:45 PM | 7.6 | 53.9 | 68% |
| 10/1/2026, 5:31:40 PM | 9.7 | 53.9 | 72% |
| 10/4/2026, 3:46:28 PM | 6.5 | 54.9 | 66% |
| 10/11/2026, 4:41:46 PM | 5.1 | 53.3 | 63% |