Predicted scoreLikely
Virginia
21.8
SMU
30.8
SMU win probability: 71%
Margin (SMU − Virginia): 9.0 (80% range -11 to 29)
Total: 52.5 (80% range 30 to 76)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 17 | 24 | 0.76% |
| 17 | 31 | 0.67% |
| 17 | 17 | 0.63% |
| 14 | 31 | 0.63% |
| 24 | 31 | 0.63% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:55:37 PM | 9.1 | 52.5 | 72% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:05:34 PM | 9.0 | 52.5 | 72% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:29:48 PM | 9.0 | 52.5 | 71% |