2026 Week 7 · Oct 17, 2026, 4:00 AM · Hornet Stadium
Ohio @ Sacramento State
Predicted scoreConfident
Ohio
34.2
Sacramento State
14.8
Sacramento State win probability: 10%
Margin (Sacramento State − Ohio): -19.4 (80% range -39 to 0)
Total: 49.1 (80% range 27 to 72)
Actual: Ohio 48 – Sacramento State 7 (margin error 21.6, total error 5.9)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 31 | 7 | 0.92% |
| 28 | 7 | 0.89% |
| 31 | 10 | 0.87% |
| 24 | 7 | 0.86% |
| 38 | 10 | 0.80% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Darker = more likely. The dot marks the predicted score; the dashed line is where home and away are tied.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 9/3/2026, 2:30:13 PM | 5.0 | 55.1 | 61% |
| 9/4/2026, 10:47:02 AM | 5.0 | 55.1 | 61% |
| 9/6/2026, 2:03:53 PM | 4.9 | 55.0 | 61% |
| 9/8/2026, 6:01:00 PM | 4.8 | 55.5 | 60% |
| 9/11/2026, 12:55:22 PM | -7.0 | 45.2 | 32% |
| 9/13/2026, 2:58:01 PM | -16.9 | 51.9 | 14% |
| 9/20/2026, 2:39:48 PM | -16.8 | 51.9 | 14% |
| 9/27/2026, 11:59:04 AM | -16.5 | 51.8 | 14% |
| 9/27/2026, 3:37:37 PM | -16.5 | 51.8 | 14% |
| 10/1/2026, 5:31:39 PM | -20.6 | 51.3 | 9% |
| 10/4/2026, 3:46:22 PM | -17.2 | 49.9 | 13% |
| 10/11/2026, 4:41:41 PM | -19.4 | 49.1 | 10% |