2026 Week 7 · Oct 15, 2026, 11:30 PM · Protective Stadium
East Carolina @ UAB
Predicted scoreLean
East Carolina
27.1
UAB
21.8
UAB win probability: 37%
Margin (UAB − East Carolina): -5.3 (80% range -25 to 14)
Total: 48.9 (80% range 27 to 72)
Actual: East Carolina 17 – UAB 30 (margin error 18.3, total error 1.9)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 24 | 17 | 0.76% |
| 24 | 14 | 0.69% |
| 21 | 17 | 0.68% |
| 24 | 24 | 0.66% |
| 17 | 17 | 0.66% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Darker = more likely. The dot marks the predicted score; the dashed line is where home and away are tied.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:55:39 PM | -11.1 | 54.4 | 25% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:05:32 PM | -10.9 | 54.4 | 25% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:29:42 PM | -11.0 | 54.4 | 25% |
| 9/4/2026, 10:47:17 AM | -11.0 | 54.4 | 25% |
| 9/6/2026, 2:03:38 PM | -11.1 | 54.4 | 24% |
| 9/8/2026, 6:00:55 PM | -11.6 | 53.9 | 23% |
| 9/11/2026, 12:54:51 PM | -8.2 | 54.9 | 30% |
| 9/13/2026, 2:57:54 PM | -5.2 | 54.3 | 37% |
| 9/20/2026, 2:39:53 PM | -5.2 | 54.3 | 37% |
| 9/27/2026, 11:58:52 AM | -5.0 | 54.3 | 38% |
| 9/27/2026, 3:37:29 PM | -5.0 | 54.3 | 38% |
| 10/1/2026, 5:31:24 PM | -6.0 | 49.6 | 35% |
| 10/4/2026, 3:46:18 PM | -6.3 | 49.4 | 34% |
| 10/11/2026, 4:41:49 PM | -5.3 | 48.9 | 37% |